Focus Dubai

The Arab-British Chamber of Commerce hosted a business briefing on the latest developments in Dubai, the second largest emirate in the UAE and its economic vision for the future.

The event was co-organised with the Government of Dubai Department of Tourism and Commerce Marketing whose Marketing Manager Fayha Sultan gave the main presentation.
The seminar was honoured with the presence of H E Abdulrahman Ghanem Almutaiwee, the UAE Ambassador to the UK.
A large number of UK business executives and investors attended the event to learn about the latest investment opportunities offered by Dubai as it continues to strengthen and diversify its economy.
Chairing the seminar, Abdeslam El-Idrissi, Director of Trade Services at the Arab-British Chamber of Commerce, began with a brief overview during which he reminded everyone of the major achievements undertaken by the emirate.
dubai

HE Abdulrahman Ghanem Almutaiwee and Speakers

Dubai’s inspirational vision was influential right across the globe and its high level of services and infrastructure were continuing to attract the greatest talent from all over the world.
In the aftermath of the recent global financial downturn, Dubai continues to be a place where people increasing numbers wanted to live, work and learn.
“Dubai thinks big”, Mr El-Idrissi stated, pointing to its record beating projects such as the world’s tallest building and largest airport currently under construction.
Historically, Dubai has always thrived as a major trading hub bridging East and West.
Delegates to the seminar were given an insight into why Dubai continued to be the location of choice for an increasing number of companies seeking to launch business in the Gulf and further afield in the Asian and African markets.
dubai

Dubai was home to over 30 free zones each designed to offer companies in specific sectors with all the services and facilities they required to conduct success business.  
Fayha Sultan stressed that Dubai had a diverse economy and was about far more than the construction sector, whose fortunes had been hitting the news headlines recently.
She praised to creativity of the leadership of Dubai and the positive attitude that prevailed among the business community in the emirate.
Partnership between the public and private sectors had been a key to Dubai’s record of success over the years.
In particular, Dubai offered many opportunities for SMEs operating in a diverse range of sector activities, with the re-export trade being especially significant.
Ms Sultan described Dubai’s economy as 96% non-oil based with 74% based on services. Its GDP was $52.2 billion in 2009.
She listed Dubai’s recent successes including the opening on schedule of the Dubai Metro in 2009, the ongoing work on the new airport which will open for cargo in June as scheduled.  In addition, Jebel Ali Free Zone had recently celebrated in 25 years.
Businesses were advised that future projects worth looking at were emerging in sectors like health, education, financial services, tourism and retail as Dubai continued to pursue its diversification strategy.
Retail was important given that the emirate boasted over 25 major malls and that malls represented the real “street life” of Dubai, Fayha Sultan said.

     
Tourism was also an important contributor to the economy, it had risen 5% already this year and Dubai had set itself an ambitious target of attracting 15 million tourists by 2015.
The next speaker, Phil Dowrick, Gulf business specialist with UKTI, said that he had been visiting Dubai for over 20 years and had witnessed its remarkable transformation during these decades.
He said that the population growth was a key driver of the economy and identified education, healthcare, transport, energy and utilities as the sectors that offered the most opportunities for doing business as Dubai invested to create more jobs and diversify its economy.
He expressed the hope that more UK firms would be able to take advantages of the emerging opportunities in Dubai and advised companies seeking inroads into the market to make use of the services provided by the British Business Group in the UAE and the UKTI.
Mr Dowrick said the key message was that Dubai remained open for business.
Oliver Cornock, the Regional Editor of Oxford Business Group, provided an overview of the Dubai economy in the global context and examined recent trends.
He said that despite the impact of the downturn on the construction market in particular, Dubai was a dynamic city where business goes on.

Although lavish properties remained central to Dubai’s image, property was not its only asset, Mr Cornock stated, echoing the references made by previous speakers to the developments in tourism, healthcare, financial services and transport.
Ammar Shams, Head of Business Development, HSBC Bank Middle East, said that he was proud to be from Dubai and was equally proud of Dubai’s record of achievement in emerging as a great metropolitan centre within just a generation.
Mr Shams spoke about the role of the HSBC in Dubai since 1946 and looked at the various services that banks can provide to support businesses and trade in the region.
The final speaker, David Church, International Development Partner with law firm DLA Piper, outlined the basic legal requirements for doing business in Dubai, explaining the various options open to companies seeking to set up operations.
The presentations were followed by questions from the audience after which the formal proceedings concluded with a networking reception.

Diversification and expansion of product line-up

The Works Applications Group is committed to helping its clients improve return on their IT investment by providing ERP software packages and related services.

Our future business development will be driven by the following four-pronged medium-term strategies:

1. Diversification and expansion of product line-up
2. Expansion of scope of services offered by the Group
3. Expansion of customer base
4. Overseas business development – beyond Japan to overseas markets

Of the above four strategies, priority will be given to the first and the second strategies, namely diversification and expansion of product line-up and expansion of scope of services, in order to secure focused application of management resources.

The third and fourth strategies will be mainly based on an inorganic approach through investment in, M&A of, or business tie-up with companies that have promising products or services in new areas.

Portfolio Diversification Strategies: Don’t Let One Country Dominate Your Investment Portfolio

The 2006 Winter Olympic Games in Torino, Italy may not have quite the suspense and viewer appeal of some past Olympics. But one thing they share in common with all Olympic games: patriotism – unbridled fervor for one’s home country.

I can still remember the chants of “USA! USA!” ringing in my ears as I watched the U.S.’s amateur hockey team upset the “unbeatable” hockey juggernaut from the USSR.

Such patriotic zeal can be fun – even exhilarating – when cheering on countrymen and women in athletic events. But many people unknowingly carry that same patriotic bent into their investing portfolio. And that can result in missing out on portfolio diversification strategies that include some the world’s strongest – and most profitable – markets.

Investing Outside the Good Old USA

Many portfolios carry only U.S.-based stocks and indexes. And this is understandable. Those are the investments that we understand best. But we ignore the rest of the world at our own peril when it comes to diversifying our portfolio.

The U.S. markets are superlative in many ways – the biggest, the busiest and among the most transparent in the world. But when it comes to performance, the U.S. markets have been laggards, not leaders. Take a look at the chart below that compares the relative performance of stocks representing different companies:

In the last 12 months, the S&P 500 Index (a proxy for the U.S. stock markets) was up about 6%. After monster growth in 2003, the China Fund (NYSE: CHN) is only up 3% for the last 12 months.

But while China and U.S. stocks have been experiencing low growth, other markets have been booming. Germany, Japan and Canada are up between 23% and 38% percent for the most recent 12 months. During the same period, Brazil and India have been up 87% and 90% respectively!

Though not shown in the relative performance chart above, a little extra research reveals that of the seven countries represented above, three of them have exceeded their year-2000 highs (Canada by a little, and India and Brazil by a lot!).

Portfolio Diversification Strategies and Ancient Eastern Philosophy…

“When Testing the Depth Of the Water, Don’t Use Both Feet…”

The opportunities that spring up every year in some new foreign market might make you want to toss your whole portfolio into foreign markets. But bear in mind that these markets are very volatile. And they do go down as well as up. For example:

    * In the first five months of 2004, the China Fund lost 50% of its value.
    * In 13 months spanning 2001 and 2002, the Canada Index lost 60% of its value.
    * From March of 2000 to October of 2003, the German index dropped 73%.

Almost every portfolio could benefit from some geographic diversification strategies. But putting too much weight in country-based funds, indexes or iShares can also introduce more volatility than you’d like to your portfolio.

Two Prudent Diversification Strategies for Your Portfolio

As much as possible, you might want to use the following two diversification strategies when broadening your portfoli

    * Spread your risk geographically. Don’t just invest in countries from Asia Pacific or in European countries, or South American or North American countries. Try to add something from all the major economic regions. A lower volatility alternative might be to use regional funds or indexes that spread their investments across a whole region.
    * Diversify among momentum- and value-based countries. India and Brazil have been on strong upward moves for more than two years. But only picking countries that have had long uptrends sets you up for getting in at or near the top. Momentum plays are very useful and should be part of a diversified strategy. But they should be balanced by a couple of value plays such as investing in China, which has had a strong pullback during all of 2005.

Conclusion: Minimize risk by giving yourself some geographic diversity in your portfolio strategies.

Great trading,

D.R.

Today’s Trader’s U Tips & Tricks

    * If you like momentum plays like the India Fund and the Brazil Index have been over the last couple of years, you have to take a look at Alex Green’s Momentum Alert trading service. Alex is a sharp analyst whom I have known for several years. I personally looked at almost every one of his picks for 2005, and I know he was bringing big positive returns for his subscribers. Learn more about the Momentum Alert and catch a risk-free look at his latest newsletter here.
    * If you haven’t taken advantage of Investment U’s free reports, now is the time to check them out. One worth some extra attention is: Stock Market Investment Advice: The 2 Most Profitable Secrets of the World’s Greatest Investors. You’ll get the two secrets shared by more than 99% of the world’s best investors – the key to letting you squeeze every cent of profit from your winners, and get out with your profits intact.

Precious metals and fixed income

Precious metals

We started the year with holdings in SLV, an exchange traded commodity fund for silver. In 2008 we bought gold and silver to in a bid to diversify our assets to reduce our portfolio risk. This diversification strategy did not help us as the price of precious metals fell together with stocks and commodities in 2008. I sold off our gold positions in May 2009 when I had a chance to get out at break even but decided to keep our silver position because at that time I was still undecided whether inflation or deflation would be a problem in the next few years. As precious metals are supposed to be the ultimate hedge for inflation, I thought we should still hold small position in this asset class while I continued my research on inflation vs. deflation. The more I understood about this topic, the more convinced I became that there is little risk of inflation in the near future and deflation was the bigger threat so I decided to sell our silver investments in October 2009 at a small loss. The price of gold and silver was still going up at the time as many big investors including some very clever fund managers like John Paulson and George Soros were piling into gold. However, I trusted my own research and once I was convinced of the threat of deflation, I adjusted our asset allocation accordingly.

It looks like the consensus for deflation is growing and in recent weeks there are many headline stories like these in the financial news:

Aug 2, 2010 – Big investors wary of deflation risk
Aug 4, 2010 – Defending yourself against deflation
Aug 4, 2010 – With deflation looming, even the top guys are flummoxed right now

If you are confused about how to invest if there is deflation, you are not alone – even the top investors are flummoxed right now! Most of us who are born after the Great Depression will have no idea what to do to prepare for deflation because inflation is something we have lived with all of our lives. If you want to learn more about deflation, I would highly recommend you learn from deflation experts like Robert Prechter who wrote about it in his best selling book Conquer the Crash which was first published in 2002. This book was republished with updates in 2009 and it gives a very detailed case for deflation and tells you how to protect yourself and maybe even profit from deflation. Do also read Deflation: First Step, Understand It, a recent article published by Elliott Wave International, Prechter’s investment advisory company.

With deflation, cash and cash equivalents are the best investments because cash becomes more valuable when prices of assets fall. Quality bonds are the best types of investments for deflation and US treasury bonds is one of the recommended investments. Investment advisers from the deflation camp like Gary Shilling and Yves Lamoureux have been advising their clients to buy the 30 year treasury bonds. David Rosenberg has been advising his clients to buy quality corporate bonds. Recently, Bill Gross who runs PIMCO’s $US239 billion Total Return Fund increased his allocation to treasuries to about 51 per cent of the portfolio, up from less than 33 per cent at the end of March 2010.

Treasury bonds

With some fear and trepidation, I proceeded to make our first investment in US treasury bonds last year. Even though my research tells me this is the right investment, the thought of buying bonds from a country with trillions of dollars of debt was still a little uncomfortable for me. Based on simple logic, it is hard to imagine why something like bonds that can be freely created from thin air can be more valuable than tangible assets like gold or property, but once you understand what causes deflation, you will understand why they can.

As usual, I looked to get our exposure to bonds through Exchange Traded Funds. In August 2009, I bought some shares in IEF, a US 7-10 year bond ETF together with protective put options, just in case. The bond yield for 10 year bonds was just over 3 percent at the time. The bond market remained pretty flat for a while but when the US stock market started to fall sharply in April 2010, bond ETFs shot up in price as investors rushed into bonds as part of the flight to safety. By June 30, we managed to get an unrealised gain of nearly 7 percent on our IEF position, giving us a total annual return of ten percent. Our bond investments have outperformed our Australian term deposit investments even though the interest rates for the term deposits were a lot higher.

Chinese Diversification Strategy

In a series of maneuvers, Chinese officials have revealed their strategy implementation in a very broad set of steps. Beijing leaders plan to establish the yuan currency as a global reserve currency. The process will be made more complete after issuance of a large volume of Chinese Govt debt securities, soon in coming. The number of policy actions is impressive. While the USGovt is busy stepping backwards with FASB rules enabling false bank accounting, gearing up Treasury programs to direct colossal elite welfare / confiscation to failed banks responsible for the crisis, covering up Wall Street fraud and regulatory lapses and debt rating agency collusion, and ordering pork like the $9 billion high speed train from Disneyland to Las Vegas, the Chinese are making important meaningful critical strides. Within a year, the Chinese will have established the yuan currency as a legitimate alternative to the USDollar for global trade, and later to some extent for global banking. The Chinese Govt has ordered monetary policy changes that have boosted their money supply by 25.5% over the last twelve months, with a giant stimulus program and relaxed bank credit rules. Since new maneuvers are being funded by incremental new surplus funds, they are exhibiting their financial power without upsetting their vast reserves accounts. The lost in the USCongress might talk about ‘Pay-Go’ measures to pay for programs as we go forward, but China does it in actual terms.



The Chinese are finally deploying alternative strategic plans in heavy volume, in open defiance, and even finger wagging at USGovt leaders. From their perspective, Beijing suspects that the US Federal Reserve is engineering a covert default on America’s debt by printing money on a vast scale. The Beijing leaders have reacted in a very noticeable profound comprehensive manner that has taken many analysts and observers off guard.



In my view, the Chinese will successfully serve as the spearhead for dethroning the USDollar from its primary global reserve currency position, called by me the catbird seat. The US has become a horrible steward, in recent years promoting massive syndicates that finally are being recognized. Both Bob Moriarity and Gary Dorsch have put forth articles in the last couple weeks pointing out Financial Coup d’Etat events and forces that reveal Obama in service to his Wall Street masters. The Wall Street Journal and London-based journals also have begun to cite endorsed and covered-up failure. This is unprecedented in journalism. After the Chinese spearhead does its work, the new partially gold-backed currencies can more easily be launched. One might say that Beijing leaders and their cast of economist and banking leaders are tilling the soil for planting the new currencies. At one time, my perception was that the yuan would follow the new hard asset launched currencies, linking to them with basket weightings. Now it is quite clear that China will lead and others will follow, benefiting from the heavy spadework, after dealing with geopolitical headwinds and interference.



SPECIFIC CHINESE STEPS TOWARD GLOBAL POSITION

The April Hat Trick Letter report for Gold & Currencies has been posted. Here are some outlined details on the important maneuvers recently made by China. They appear to be positioning themselves both to establish the yuan across the world and to fortify reserves with hard assets. Their steps are broad and effective upon examination. Their initiatives display coordination, planning, and research. Next they must deal with political backlash, unintended consequences, internal social problems, and hidden retaliation that will not be discussed (much precedent).



Since last December, China has signed deals with six countries, including Indonesia, South Korea, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Belarus, and most recently Argentina, for currency swaps that would inject Chinese money into foreign banking systems. That would allow foreign companies to pay for goods they import from China in yuan, bypassing the USDollar. This is an international settlement function.



Beijing is taking initiatives to use the yuan to settle trade accounts between some Chinese provinces and neighboring states, starting with Hong Kong. Shanghai and the four cities Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Dongguan and Zhuhai have been designated to use the yuan in overseas trade settlements, ordered by a State Council under the auspices of Premier Wen Jiabao. This Pearl River Delta region is the location of the biggest concentration of export oriented factories. The motive is to reduce the risk from exchange rate fluctuations, and to encourage their overseas trade in decline.



Chinese officials have called attention to the risks of an international monetary system that relies on the USDollar, seen as increasingly unstable and subject to further indirect devaluation. A broad campaign has been underway for a couple months that seems coordinated, with participation by many bank and economic leaders.



A plan to set up a $10 billion cooperation fund to support infrastructure projects in countries in the Assn of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has been hatched. The plan was announced earlier this month by Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi. The ASEAN member countries are Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Brunei, Vietnam, and Indonesia. The fund could morph into a regional development fund.


The Chinese have made gigantic purchases recently for soybeans, copper, iron, crude oil, and more. The Chinese companies have begun in earnest to scoop up raw materials at cheap prices. Also, Chinese companies invested $16.3 billion in foreign assets during January and February, a doubled tempo from last year. Target zones include Iran, Brazil, Russia, Venezuela, and Australia.



Ambrose Evans-Pritchard points out that Beijing might someday purchase buy gold on a grand scale. He jests on a copper standard for a global reserve currency, and overlooks that crude oil will also figure into the Chinese commodity formulas. Interpret these developments as a major initiative toward a hard asset currency positioning for the Chinese yuan. Ambrose said, “The beauty of recycling China’s surplus into metals instead of US bonds is that it kills so many birds with one stone:

a)     it stops the yuan rising, without provoking complaints of currency manipulation by Washington;

b)     metals are easily stored in warehouses, unlike oil;

c)     the holdings are likely to rise in value over time since the earth’s crust is gradually depleting its accessible ores;

d)     Above all, such a policy safeguards China’s industrial revolution, while the West may one day face a supply crisis.



GOLD REFLECTS USDOLLAR INSTABILITY

The gold cartel is gradually losing control. They can put out a ‘double down’ futures contract short attack. They can reduce gold lease rates to below zero. They can avert a COMEX default at the eleventh hour. The consolidation process continues with a carving of the right side handle to the Cup & Handle reversal pattern in the gold price chart, as patience is surely tested. Support has been good at the more stable 50-week moving average, aided by the May 2008 support, both at the 860-865 level. Today on Thursday, the gold price finally jumped over the 900 mark, and even silver enjoyed a big rise of 3%. Currencies are being ruined universally, as governments debauch their supply fundamentals with what they regard as impunity and zero cost, very mistakenly. The costs come later, from price inflation, lost stability in the monetary foundation itself, and new unforeseen bubbles. The gold price target remains 1250 to 1300 once the 1000 mark is cleared. Watch for the potential of a bullish stochastix crossover in the green oval in the next week, an event that technicians would notice. It would signal a substantial move up soon.





Desperate measures like the EuroCB action (d) and surging COMEX open interest (e) are difficult to repeat and to sustain. Exposure renders great harm to the confidence pillar of the major currencies. The extremely promising bullish factors behind gold are many:

a)     negative real interest rates

b)     shortage of physical gold, whether bars or coins

c)     advent of price inflation next year

d)     Euro Central Bank rescue to avert COMEX default by Deutsche Bank

e)     Surge in Open Interest since mid-March in gold futures contracts

f)       Howard Ruff loves silver due to shortages, to restore the gold/silver ratio.



EXPECT THAT THE GOLD PRICE WILL MAKE NEW HIGHS FAR EARLIER THAN THE USDOLLAR SUFFERS EXCHANGE RATE DECLINES ON ANY BROAD BASIS. The Competing Currency War will keep the US$ propped for a while longer, as other currencies falter. However, the uniform competing currency devaluations serve to give gold (and silver) strength. Behind the scenes, some nations are taking stern action to firm their gold positions before the next crises, like this summer and again this autumn. In particular the Germans have ordered the return of all gold bullion home from US shady custodial supervision, while the Arabs are purchasing every available gold bullion ingot from global warehouses in private sales. They want the IMF gold next.



HIDDEN CONFLICT AT THE G20 MEETING

It is my firm belief that the Chinese controlled the G20 Agenda totally, with direct coordination from the Russians, but made gentlemanly agreements not to reveal their control. My firm belief is that the Chinese and Russian leaders at the G20 Meeting in London had contentious private meetings. Premier Wen Jiabao and Dmitri Medvedev probably informed President Obama that the USDollar is dead as a uni-polar global reserve currency, that the Chinese yuan would expand its global function, that the Special Drawing Rights could fill a void until more specific new currencies could be launched in the future, but that the choreographed glitz of the London meeting could proceed on its carefully planned stage. Several nations, led by China and Russia, demand both respect and positions on global banking institutions. China is a major global creditor nation, funding $10.4 million in USGovt debt per second. What an incredible factoid.



The G20 Meeting exposed an important erupting rift with clear divisions having emerged. Three distinct global camps are clearly at work on the monetary stage, led by US-UK, Germany, and Russia-China.

1)     The United States and Britain are alone in the monetary desperation camp. The US relies upon unbridled monetary stimulus, fiscal stimulus, employing the familiar type of failed devices that might push the limits on a potential USTreasury Bond default, in response to national insolvency on many fronts. Great Britain stands weakened in the US camp, harmed by big bank failures, a collapse of housing prices, and recently the UK Gilt auction failure.

2)     The Europeans (led by Germany & France) object to uncontrolled federal spending. German Finance minister Peer Steinbruck accused the British of ‘Crass Keynesianism.’ The Germans openly oppose larger, broader, and continued stimulus packages. The German Govt will not embark on plans that repeat the mistakes of the past.

3)     The Russians and Chinese push hard for a global reserve currency alternative to the USDollar. They permit the IMF device of Special Drawing Rights to serve as a Straw Man. Russian leaders boldly suggested in open court that gold should be included in whatever basket of currencies and commodities supported the new reserve currency.



CHINESE OFFICIALS REVEAL THEIR PHILOSOPHY

The Peoples Bank of China has been outspoken in its call for a new reserve currency. A new figure in international finance must be recognized in Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the central bank of China. In future years, Zhou could become a very prominent person who is at the forefront to break the USDollar dominance in global finance, with full support from Russia. In a white paper ambitiously entitled “Reform the International Monetary System,” Zhou has called for the creation of an international currency unit that will require ‘extraordinary political vision and courage.’ He suggests an initial launch as a blend of the USDollar, British pound, Japanese yen and the Euro, as a super-sovereign currency. It is essentially the makeup of the so-called Special Drawing Rights (SDR) created by the IMF in 1969, in my view a Straw Man device for transitional purposes.

Asian Investment Provide Diversification

Having looked at the possible developments in China, the latest news out of the rest of Asia is also not good. Factory output in Japan fell more than 8% in November, the biggest drop in 55 years. It is also expected that Toyota (TM) may report the first ever loss since WWII. According to a Bloomberg report:

    Japan's economy will probably shrink at an annual 12.1 percent pace this quarter (ended Dec 08), the sharpest drop since 1974, as exports collapse…

    “We expect negative growth will continue for a fifth straight quarter to the April-June period of 2009."

    Companies surveyed said they planned to reduce output a further 8 percent this month and 2.1 percent in January. Exports slid an unprecedented 26.7 percent last month from a year earlier.

    The data prompted other economists to revise their GDP projections. Bank of America Corp. now predicts an annualized 6.5 percent contraction from a 2.7 percent drop previously estimated.

The Yen at around 90 to a dollar is on a 13 year high and has accentuated Japan’s export woes.

As US and European consumers cut back on spending, it is hitting countries like Taiwan and Thailand apart from China & Japan. Excess capacities have been built and unless the situation in US stabilizes, the capacities in these countries are going to find it extremely difficult. If the US stimulus does not work for some reason then these countries are going to find it extremely difficult. As US moves from a leveraged and credit based society to a cash flow based, the absorption of the excess capacities may also take time.

Competitive devaluation may also start. Japan has already indicated that it plans to take steps to counter the rising Yen. It said:

    Japan was ready to intervene in the foreign-exchange market for the first time in four years. With the nation’s economy already in recession along with the U.S. and Europe, the surging yen is adding to pressure on exporters…

Most Asian countries except Japan are expected to see a disinflation or a low inflation and not a deflation. According to a Morgan Stanley report:

    ...we highlight that Singapore and Indonesia lie at the two extreme ends of the inflation spectrum. The open nature of Singapore’s economy makes it most vulnerable to build-up of slack, and hence lower pricing power. Moreover, the correction in the real estate cycle is likely to show up in CPI as rental contracts reset with a lag. In the 1998 and 2001 recessions, when GDP growth was -1.4% and -2.4%, respectively, there were three to four quarters of deflation. We expect negative inflation toward 2H09.

Countries that have economies driven by deficits are the ones that will be most affected as global liquidity shrinks and flow of foreign capital reduces compared to the leveraged era gone by.

It appears that diversification strategies will not be easy to implement even in 2009.

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