Having looked at the possible developments in China, the latest news out of the rest of Asia is also not good. Factory output in Japan fell more than 8% in November, the biggest drop in 55 years. It is also expected that Toyota (TM) may report the first ever loss since WWII. According to a Bloomberg report:
Japan's economy will probably shrink at an annual 12.1 percent pace this quarter (ended Dec 08), the sharpest drop since 1974, as exports collapse…
“We expect negative growth will continue for a fifth straight quarter to the April-June period of 2009."
Companies surveyed said they planned to reduce output a further 8 percent this month and 2.1 percent in January. Exports slid an unprecedented 26.7 percent last month from a year earlier.
The data prompted other economists to revise their GDP projections. Bank of America Corp. now predicts an annualized 6.5 percent contraction from a 2.7 percent drop previously estimated.
The Yen at around 90 to a dollar is on a 13 year high and has accentuated Japan’s export woes.
As US and European consumers cut back on spending, it is hitting countries like Taiwan and Thailand apart from China & Japan. Excess capacities have been built and unless the situation in US stabilizes, the capacities in these countries are going to find it extremely difficult. If the US stimulus does not work for some reason then these countries are going to find it extremely difficult. As US moves from a leveraged and credit based society to a cash flow based, the absorption of the excess capacities may also take time.
Competitive devaluation may also start. Japan has already indicated that it plans to take steps to counter the rising Yen. It said:
Japan was ready to intervene in the foreign-exchange market for the first time in four years. With the nation’s economy already in recession along with the U.S. and Europe, the surging yen is adding to pressure on exporters…
Japan's economy will probably shrink at an annual 12.1 percent pace this quarter (ended Dec 08), the sharpest drop since 1974, as exports collapse…
“We expect negative growth will continue for a fifth straight quarter to the April-June period of 2009."
Companies surveyed said they planned to reduce output a further 8 percent this month and 2.1 percent in January. Exports slid an unprecedented 26.7 percent last month from a year earlier.
The data prompted other economists to revise their GDP projections. Bank of America Corp. now predicts an annualized 6.5 percent contraction from a 2.7 percent drop previously estimated.
The Yen at around 90 to a dollar is on a 13 year high and has accentuated Japan’s export woes.
As US and European consumers cut back on spending, it is hitting countries like Taiwan and Thailand apart from China & Japan. Excess capacities have been built and unless the situation in US stabilizes, the capacities in these countries are going to find it extremely difficult. If the US stimulus does not work for some reason then these countries are going to find it extremely difficult. As US moves from a leveraged and credit based society to a cash flow based, the absorption of the excess capacities may also take time.
Competitive devaluation may also start. Japan has already indicated that it plans to take steps to counter the rising Yen. It said:
Japan was ready to intervene in the foreign-exchange market for the first time in four years. With the nation’s economy already in recession along with the U.S. and Europe, the surging yen is adding to pressure on exporters…
Most Asian countries except Japan are expected to see a disinflation or a low inflation and not a deflation. According to a Morgan Stanley report:
...we highlight that Singapore and Indonesia lie at the two extreme ends of the inflation spectrum. The open nature of Singapore’s economy makes it most vulnerable to build-up of slack, and hence lower pricing power. Moreover, the correction in the real estate cycle is likely to show up in CPI as rental contracts reset with a lag. In the 1998 and 2001 recessions, when GDP growth was -1.4% and -2.4%, respectively, there were three to four quarters of deflation. We expect negative inflation toward 2H09.
...we highlight that Singapore and Indonesia lie at the two extreme ends of the inflation spectrum. The open nature of Singapore’s economy makes it most vulnerable to build-up of slack, and hence lower pricing power. Moreover, the correction in the real estate cycle is likely to show up in CPI as rental contracts reset with a lag. In the 1998 and 2001 recessions, when GDP growth was -1.4% and -2.4%, respectively, there were three to four quarters of deflation. We expect negative inflation toward 2H09.
Countries that have economies driven by deficits are the ones that will be most affected as global liquidity shrinks and flow of foreign capital reduces compared to the leveraged era gone by.
It appears that diversification strategies will not be easy to implement even in 2009.
